2012 Presidential Election Predictions – Part I

For about a year, at my place of employment, I was often tasked with making fact-based arguments about how a critical decision should go one way or another. This process would usually begin with a regular, automated statistical report–showing troubling numbers–appearing in an executive’s inbox; and either the facts (on the surface) indicated that the operation was in trouble, or in danger of falling behind. Then, I would receive a phone call or email from my superior asking my opinion about what the report meant for the business, and instructing me to dive deeper into the stats to see what steps could be made to improve the operation, or what could be done to limit the pain.

A view of part of my workplace

What I found out over time is that live, high-level statistics are excellent indicators of reality, but they are not always true reality. I differentiate the live, high-level statistics from the post-live, low-level statistics that always indicate true reality. I am definitely not a statistician; but I do know that numbers are numbers in the end.

The 2012 Presidential Election: how do you relate the live statistics with the post-live statistics? Comparing this with what I have previously stated: the polls that come out on an almost daily rate are the live, high-level key performance indicators (KPI), and the  Election Day vote tallies are the post-live, low-level stats. Everyone would agree that the latter is the true indicator of reality; but also, I do not think many would argue that the KPI is not a good indicator of reality. The presidential election polls are a good indicator of reality. They are based on highly researched algorithms of probability, among other realms of statistics I dare not delve into. I can look at presidential polls (whether national or state-level), and make very educated guesses based on those polls.

If the just polls were the actual election statistics, President Obama would likely be reelected–though this could be argued. Yes, the methods and formulas could be questioned; yet overall, both campaigns and the general public base their strategy on them. This is similar to the business decision-making at my place of employment. A report is received, and decisions are constantly made based on the facts of that report. However, the report is not always the true indicator of what is actually happening. And that is where a little thing called intuition comes into play.

Intuition is using those statistical KPI’s, while also taking into account past experience and current perception; and with that, making an educated opinion of what the final outcome will be. If I would have based my opinions–and therefore decisions–on only the statistical KPI’s, the outcome would often have been undesired. That is why I would always try to look below the surface, possibly look further into the statistics; but also recollect my past experiences and formulate a perceptional opinion. The ironic thing is that perception is not at all a science. Some would argue that a wise opinion can not be based on perception; which is true to a certain extent. But I would argue that perception can be factored into an argument. There are some things that machines and numbers cannot indicate to a human. Human intuition can be dangerous, but when utilized with facts, it can be extremely powerful.

Blank USA, w territories

That is why I would like to make some Presidential election predictions: based on the KPI’s (polls), my past experiences, and current perception–similar to how I would have made a prediction a year ago regarding business operational performance.

  • Can I be wrong? For sure.
  • Will my predictions be correct? The overall probability odds are against me.
  • Am I expecting to be wrong on the final outcome? Not at all.
  • What are the odds of me being correct on every state? I would guess 1:10.
  • Am I a fortune teller? That depends. I charge $500.00 an hour: results are not guaranteed.
  • Was that last question a joke? Yes.

So, a couple of times within the next few days before the election, I will publish my highly-prone-to-error predictions on what the state-by-state results will be, along with the final outcome. Stay tuned!

What the United States Truly Needs

Which course is America currently on, according to history? In which ways could the United States literally implode? Does God still have a plan for America? These questions, and many like them, are well presented, documented, and answered by Joel C. Rosenberg in his most recent work, Implosion: Can America Recover from Its Economic and Spiritual Challenges in Time?

Cover

Being a fan of Mr. Rosenberg’s political thrillers, it was not difficult to pick up Implosion. I found this non-fiction book very relevant, in my opinion, to the situations our nation faces in the present. The exciting and gripping style that the author uses in his fiction writings shows itself at times in Implosion as well. Facts are presented in an easy-to-understand manner, definitely not feeling too cumbersome. Several chapters of theories as to what could cause the United States to “implode” are revealed in a way that causes the reader to think, but without trying to create or expound upon conspiracy theories. Rosenberg is very mainstream in his hypotheses, yet still remains thought-provoking.

I bought this book on Amazon for my Kindle (like pretty much every book I’ve bought in the last two years), and found the quality of Tyndale’s Kindle publishing to be of high-quality, yet again. There were no obvious typos or formatting errors that I saw.

In the first chapters of Implosion, the author answers, in detail, many questions that the average American citizen (or politician for that matter) may have concerning the Bible, and specifically: end times prophecy. Several questions are answered about whether America is mentioned in Biblical prophecy, and what role she could play in the future events of this world. Again, Mr. Rosenberg is very realistic in his assumptions. In no way does he delve into implausible, manufactured theories that rely simply on being culturally outrageous. He is clear and objective in prophetic matters.

About one-third of the way into the book, Joel C. Rosenberg begins to play out multiple scenarios that could cause the United States to implode upon herself. From economic collapse and terrorism, to natural disasters and the rapture, facts are presented for each case, and how this nation could become nearly insignificant in world events in the near future. Then, as if to show the reader the truth behind all of the facts, the author declares the true implosion of America that has already begun: spiritual apathy.

After showing the reality of America’s overall spiritual condition by different modern and historical figures, the author takes the reader back 250 years ago, to the First Great Awakening. During that time, men such as George Whitefield, Jonathan Edwards, and the Wesley brothers were used by God to literally transform colonial America from hard-necked “religious” pragmatists  into an overall Spirit-sensitive group of people. What seemed like insurmountable spiritual deadness was completely trodden down to make place for a historic Christian revival: with souls saved, lives turned around, and families mended.

Even 70 years after the First Great Awakening, though, a coldness had once again developed towards Godly things. The Enlightenment had put a damper on churches, to the point where most Protestant ministers even seemed unregenerate. Then, through prayer, fasting, and God’s Divine Providence, a revival spread from the ports of the east coast to the furthest frontiers. Whole families and towns were born-again. Church attendance and the number of churches in general rose tremendously. It was because God is more powerful than any human tendency toward spiritual decay; and because just a few of God’s people, again, prayed, fasted, and sought the Lord concerning the state of their neighbors.

What Joel Rosenberg brought to light at the end of the book was the need–not for a political revival–but a true, Spirit-driven Great Awakening. I have to admit, I have been paying very close attention to this current election cycle. It is very easy to get caught up into the politics of everything, and attach your hope of the future of the United States to a candidate. In no way am I saying that we should be disengaged (quite the opposite, in fact, as Rosenberg explains); however, as Christians, we must examine ourselves and not throw our hope into any political change. An American change back to the roots of her founding can only happen if America’s people seek the God of their founding.

Mr. Rosenberg concludes Implosion with a challenge for Christians to look inward. Are we seeing revival in our own lives? Are we praying for national revival? Are our families gathering around the Bible together daily to worship the Lord? Or are we simply too concerned about earthly things to make time to pray and seek God through His Word? Implosion was a refreshing, encouraging, and challenging book that I think any concerned American should read. I picked this book up thinking it would be political, but found that it was not just the typical current-events rant. Implosion doesn’t simply list out all of the problems with America: it gives the honest and Biblical solution.

Labor Day Surprise

Continued from “Surprise Visit to DC”

Labor Day morning was pretty lazy for us.  You know, hotels in and of themselves are just plain fun!  I know that people that travel on business tire of them easily–but not the Speckhals’!

The night before, we saw someone with a box of real, fresh Krispey Kreme donuts.  We thought to ourselves, “That would be an awesome breakfast!”  I looked on our little netbook, and quickly found out that there were no Krispey Kreme donut shops within fifteen miles: and that’s a long way in a big city.  “Well, we’ll just find something else.”  By 9:30am, we were itching to check out and head to Washington!

One of the best things about our hotel, the Hyatt Regency Bethesda, is that it was literally right above the DC Metro (their subway system).  I knew before we even left from home that I wanted nothing to do with driving or finding a parking spot in Washington.  I was always taught to take the Metro.  We boarded the Red Line bound for the DuPont Circle station.

Our stops went past on our way into the city: Friendship Heights, Tenlytown, Van Ness, Cleveland Park, Woodley Park/Zoo, and then came Dupont Circle.  For those of you who may know DC some, you may be asking yourself, “Why did they get off there.  It’s still a two mile walk to the White House, and more to the mall.”  The answer is that we genuinely wanted to see all of the international embassies along Massachusetts Avenue.  There was nothing too awful special about it honestly, but it was interesting to see the American headquarters of so many foreign nations.  Here is a sampling of a few that we saw along the walk:

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Ah, I forgot to mention: as we got off of the Metro at DuPont Circle, this is exactly what we saw.  You can guess what we had for breakfast!

Yes, the "Hot Now" light was really lit up. We couldn't help but take a picture

After walking past a couple dozen foreign embassies, we made our way towards the White House, the next closest attraction.  Now, you all know where I stand with the man living–I’ll just say I don’t stand with him much.  Nonetheless, the White House is still awe inspiring to see–a true symbol of our country, standing proudly as the former home of Abraham Lincoln, D.W. Eisenhower, El Renaldo Reagenas Maxiums, and George W. Bush.  It still makes me thankful to live in America, no matter if what’s his name is in office.

Afterwards, we headed toward the National Holocaust Museum.  It was incredible, yet hard to describe in detail.  It really opens your eyes to how far mankind can go in his sinfulness.  The most memorable part to me was a scaled down replica of the wall of “The Righteous Among the Nations.” The Israeli government founded and keeps the list in Jerusalem.  The wall is made up of Gentiles who sacrificed their well-being, fortune, and even lives for the Jews during the Holocaust.  Many on that list were put under the same tortures as the Jews for their compassion.  Some, nothing happened to them at all.  But all gave or risked something for others during the worst atrocity of the twentieth century.

The Capitol Building was our next stop.  We toured this historic and significant building, seeing some very famous artwork in the rotunda (which is also the place many of our presidents “lay in state” before their funeral).  My favorite part of the tour, believe it or not, was the office of the Speaker of the House.  “Why?”, you ask.  I saw the placard above the doorway that said “Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi.”  I simply could not help but dream of that being changed to “Speaker John Boehner”, or better yet, “Speaker Paul Ryan.”  November is too far away…

On our way back to the Metro station, we stopped by the World War II Memorial (I could write a whole article just about that!), the Lincoln Memorial, and the Vietnam Veterans Memorial.  By 6:00p, we were underground on a train, on our way back to Bethesda and our car.

But wait!  We hopped off one stop early at Friendship Heights.  What was there?  Not too much except for Maggianos Little Italy! It was my first time there, and let me say that I love Italian food: but I didn’t know what Italian was until I went here.  Just look at this bruschetta, and you will understand:

Maggiano's BrushettaOne nice deal they had going on was that if you bought any entrée of pasta, they give you another one for free to take home with you!  Altogether, the atmosphere was perfect, the food one of a kind, and the price was even half-way reasonable.  What a treat!

We again took the Metro back to our hotel  hopped the car around 8:00p, and were home–what seems like a thousand miles away from DC–in just a little over 90 minutes.  Our Labor Day was a welcome little vacation that both of us enjoyed, and would do again in a heartbeat.  I have my eyes set on somewhere else for us to go on a little longer vacation next month, but I guess you all will just have to wait and see where that is.