2012 Election Predictions – Eating Crow

To a large degree, I was way off on my election predictions. A lot of the factors that helped Romney did go how I thought, but I was completely blindsided by about the same amount of Obama enthusiasm as 2008. I thought that the Democratic base would been in a bit of a lull. Not the case.

I was going to write all of the nitty-gritty details, but someone else already did all of that for me! Dick Morris’ post from this morning sums it all up very similar–and with much more authority–to what I would have guessed.

I must say: I am glad the whole election thing is over, regardless of who won!

Okay…no more political tweets or posts for a few months–I’m wiped out!

Election Day – Finally

I’ve already made my predictions (Part I, Part II, Part III). I am now ready to vote–finally! Actually, I have been for a few years. It’s pretty simple for me: straight Republican for this election; however, I won’t be pushing the “Straight Republican” button on the machine. Why? There’s just more satisfaction for me for selecting each candidate. Here’s my list:

  • President: Mitt Romney (Paul Ryan VP)
  • US Senator: Tom Smith
  • US Congress (4th District): Scott Perry
  • Attorney General: David Freed
  • State Treasurer: Diana Irey Vaughan
  • PA General Assembly Representative: Stan Saylor
  • Auditor General: John Maher

To be completely honest, I’m not even sure yet if I’ll vote in the morning before work, or in the evening after I get off of work. I’m leaning for the morning. And of course, I’ll be up late watching the results come in. I remember doing this for the first time in 2000 (I was 13 then…yes, I’m a nerd for this stuff!), staying up until 2AM, going to bed, then waking up to hear that the election was still a tossup. Hopefully, it won’t be this time around.

As an aggregate from what I’ve heard, I’ll give you a taste of things to watch out for, to see which way things are trending.

  1. 6:00PM EST | Indiana is one of the first “battleground-ish” states to close its polls (though it should have no problem going for Romney). Indiana has to be called early for Romney. If it takes a few hours, Republicans will be in trouble.
  2. 7:00PM EST | Florida and Virginia are the big states to close at this time. If both are called for Romney before 9:00PM, this will be a good night for Romney.
  3. 8:00PM EST | This is the big one. Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Michigan all close at 9. Of course, there could be some polls open later because of long lines, but overall, between 8PM and 10PM, I think the election will be decided. If any of these states get called for any candidate before 9PM, the night will look very bright for that candidate. If Romney wins ONE of these, the contest is OVER. If Obama holds all of them (especially Ohio), it will be tough for Romney to win–nearly requiring a miracle.
  4. 9:00PM EST | Colorado comes up at this hour. If Ohio ends up swinging in Romney’s favor, and he ends up losing several of the other tossups (like Virginia, New Hampshire, or Iowa), Colorado will push him over the top, theoretically. If Obama picks up Colorado, along with Virgina and Iowa after Romney wins Ohio, then Mr. Obama could still eek out a victory. Wisconsin is of course here as well. Romney would have to have it if he loses Ohio. Otherwise, the state doesn’t mean quite as much to either candidate.

And a few tips from me to my fellow conservative voters:

  • Don’t let the exit polls that might be leaked in the afternoon do ANYTHING to you. Don’t say, “Oh, it looks like Obama’s going to win. I’ll just vote next time.” That’s what the Democrats want you to do. That’s what they tried to do in the 2004 elections when Bush won, as well as the recent Wisconsin recall election. If we would have went by the leaked exit polls in Wisconsin, then Walker would have lost handily. Note: he won by 5 points.
  • Make sure your vote is counted. If somehow you are not on your precinct’s registration list (because you moved recently, ended up at the wrong polling place, etc.) make sure you get to the right polling place.
  • Don’t let long lines hinder you. If the polling place is about to close, make sure that you stay in line.

And on a much more important note:

If Mitt Romney is elected President, the Senate flips to Republican control, and the House stays solidly red, then guess what? In the long run as Christians, this means pretty much nothing. Yes, I am a conservative. I believe in free-market, capitalist economics. I am pro-life, pro-gun, pro-freedom of religion, and pro-limited-government. But my political beliefs are gong to change our country to what it needs to be at heart. I am reminded of this so much when reading biographies of historic preachers (Edwards, Moody, Spurgeon,  Torrey, Finney, among others)? They never were involved in preaching a “vote this guy in, and revival will come” gospel. What did they pray for? A Spiritual Awakening: one preaches the Living Christ; that floods the aisles with converts; that mends families; that rescues the needy; that strives for Godly Holiness. This is what we need as a nation. Sure, a political victory is great to have. But what does it matter in eternity? Vote on Election Day. Vote for God’s moral values. Vote for freedom. But never forget Whom we serve for eternity!

I would recommend reading Joel Rosenberg’s Implosion for more on this subject.

2012 Presidential Election Predictions – Part III – Real Deal

It is now the day before the Presidential Election, and so far I have shown some of the basis for my prediction methodology, as well as the states that have a chance to swing to either candidate, but are leaning one way or the other. I have eight states that I think are true “tossups.” Many would disagree with me on whether they think these states are tossups or not, but I feel pretty confident (based on polls and other non-professional observations) that these states could go either way. So far, not counting these eight states, we have a map and tally that looks something like this:

Barack Obama: 223

Mitt Romney: 206

First off, I feel that I need to explain a highly critical factor in these states, without having to repeat the same sentences for each prediction. GOP turnout is enthusiasm is not quite at a 1984 level, but it is definitely higher than 2008. Even Democrats must admit that conservative voters did a horrible job showing up to vote for the McCain ticket. Even Republicans were tired of the Washington cronyism that had prevailed for the two or three years leading up to 2008. Barack Obama not only rode a huge wave of liberalism spurred on by the anti-war sentiment and economic peril, but he also rode on the lack of conservative enthusiasm. He will not have that luxury in 2012. We must not forget that the American people have already rejected Barack Obama and his policies once in 2010. Though this election will not be near the tsunami that occurred in the previous midterm, the majority of the same sentiment still exists. We will see to what extent tomorrow.

The following states and my predictions are in order of least competitive, to most competitive (subjectively speaking).


The good ol’ Sunshine State! According to the majority of polls in the past month, Florida is leaning slightly to Romney or tied. I’ve heard from plenty of pundits that Florida is a microcosm of the country, which I tend to agree with. The western side of the state is heavily Republican, the eastern side favors Democrats (minus Jacksonville and the Cuban population), the panhandle is not much different from the rest of the deep south (except Tallahassee), and there’s the geographical region that is mentioned over and over again: the I-4 Corridor (from Tampa, through Orlando, and up to Daytona Beach). Based on polls, voter enthusiasm, the retired population, and national trends, I think that Florida will be more like the 2004 election than the 2008 election. Florida’s large lot of 29 electors is going to Mitt.

New Hampshire

I just finished my first trip to New Hampshire about a month ago, and found a state where, ironically, the citizens that live the metropolitan ares trend Republican, while those in the more rural areas trend Democrat. New Hampshire has become more and more like its neighbors Vermont and Massachusetts in the past couple of decades. Granted that free-spirited attitude that prevails among the people still shines, which gives Mitt Romney some hope, but I think that New Hampshire is going to be in Barack Obama’s column. Romney still has a very good chance here, but the demographics of the state are trending Obama’s way. 4 electoral votes to Mr. Obama.


Iowa is another state, like New Mexico, I cannot quite wrap my head around. If the average person were to drive through the state, and get to know its people, they would think that the state is not much different from its neighbors Nebraska or Missouri (at least the Northern half). But Iowa has a long Democratic tradition, stemming from the university campuses and…well…tradition! Iowa also gave President Obama his somewhat unexpected victory in the 2008 Democratic primaries over Hillary Clinton. The state has a heart for Obama. For Governor Romney, he has the national rural and suburban trends helping him out, along with the endorsement of the Des Moines Resgister, which endorsed Obama in 2008. Some polls are showing a tie, several show Mr. Obama ahead, and a few show Mr. Romney ahead. I have a feeling that we are going to see Iowa, and its 6 electoral college votes, go to Barack Obama. This is going to be a very close one, though, that all depends on turnout.


This state is going to be fun to watch. I think that the Colorado conservative vote is really going to come out of the woodwork in 2012. Early voting is showing some promising signs for Mitt Romney. However, Mr. Obama has a strong and growing presence in Denver, and with the Latino vote. This helped Michael Bennet defeat Ken Buck in the 2010 midterms, and will again help Obama in the presidential. But with the crowd sizes, and conservative national trend, I have a hard time seeing Mitt Romney lose Colorado, and its 9 electors. The Republican get-out-the-vote effort has been successful to a large extent, and the early voting numbers have not been very positive for Mr. Obama.


I had the privilege of seeing the newly announced vice-presidential candidate Paul Ryan hold a campaign rally in Fairfax County, Virginia a couple of months ago, and let me tell you, Virginia is ready for President Romney. This state is still mostly a  conservative state, but mainly because of the growth around DC (one of the most liberal tracks of land in the nation), they picked Obama in 2008. Also, I believe that a lot of rural voters decided to give Obama in chance in 2008; in part because Bush left a sour taste in their mouth, an also because there was a national wave of enthusiasm for Obama. Due to the fact that Republicans won handily in the 2009 Governor’s race by electing Bob McDonnell, as well as captured several congressional seats, I think that Mr. Romney will do well here–even to the point where it may help elect George Allen back to the senate. Virginia, and its 13 votes will also be in Mitt Romney’s column. 


This one is my surprise. I know that most will disagree with me on Pennsylvania, but I’m feeling a ton of Romney enthusiasm. Philadelphia and its suburbs will make or break it, not only for the states electors, but also for the race in general. Philadelphia city population growth is stagnant. This is the liberal stronghold of the state. The Philadelphia suburbs are a tossup. Mr. Obama must offset Romney’s votes in the suburbs by turning out the inner-city vote in droves. There is also the western part of the state, centered around Pittsburgh, but also including all of the rural vote surrounding it. This region is not going to be very friendly to Barack Obama like it was in 2008. They have coal, guns, and faith on their minds (“bitter clingers”, as they were once referred to). In all of those categories, Democrats are not well liked. I believe that we will see a sizable group of Democrats cross the aisle and vote for Mr. Romney this time. This trend may be seen throughout the state, and possibly throughout the country tomorrow. I am stepping out on a limb by saying this, but Governor Mitt Romney will be awarded Pennsylvania’s 20 electoral votes.


Wisconsin is one of the bastions of Progressivism. Wisconsin is also more friendly to Republicans in the last couple of years than it has been in a while, thanks in part to the election of Scott Walker, and his subsequently large victory in the recall election. I think that many people overlook the Scott Walker effect in Wisconsin, and possibly nation-wide. And there is also the Paul Ryan effect in Wisconsin. I have no doubt that Republicans and Independents alike will turn out at the polls for Mitt Romney. The real question is if Barack Obama can offset those gains with large margins in his strongholds of Milwaukee and Madison. Nonetheless, I don’t think that the Democratic turnout will be anything like 2008–not even enough to offset the Republican enthusiasm. 10 votes to Mitt Romney from Wisconsin.


This is the state that all the big pundits are talking about. All of the ads, campaign rallies, and overall attention on Ohio have likely made Ohio’s citizens ready for this election to be over. Ohio, according to the polling numbers, seems to be leaning Mr. Obama’s way. But as far as I see it, those are the  only–maybe the GM/Chrysler thing too–leading indicators that are promising for Barack Obama. Early voting numbers are down by a large margin for Democrats, and up by a large margin for Republicans. Evangelical and Catholics are trending heavily against the Democrats–many of whom voted for Obama in the 2008. I think that what happened in neighboring Indiana is going to spill over into Ohio. The voters in this state have a bit of “buyer’s remorse.” They are ready for a real change this election. Yes, Ohio is going to Romney–and its prized 18 electoral college votes.

Mitt Romney: 305

Barack Obama: 233

This is my final score for the 2012 Election. I would not call it a landslide, but it is surely a big win for the Republicans. There is a big margin of error on my analysis, but I feel pretty confident with it. I have no authority over the statistics, nor am I any “expert” political analyst. These are just the facts that I am seeing on the surface, coupled with my view on the ground, and topped off with a little intuition. I’m excited to see what will happen tomorrow night. If I’m way off, then as I say to my wife all the time, “Oh, well!” If I’m right on, or even close, the first thing that I will do is…laugh! I have to admit, it would be funny if I guessed everything correctly–kind of like if someone were to guess the whole NCAA bracket correctly.

Tomorrow, I’m going to do a little “epilogue” on this series. It will be much shorter, and little bit of an “Election Day Guide” on what to look for, as well as a summary of my overall thoughts on America’s place in the world: no matter which way the election swings.

2012 Presidential Election Predictions – Part II – Easy States

Since I have spelled out the methodology and basis for my predictions in Part I of the 2012 Election Predictions, I now want to go through, state my state, what I am thinking the final elections results will look like. To start off, I have made a map of the states that I believe have absolutely no chance of changing hands this election. These are safe for either candidate. Going with the typical colors used, President Obama likely states are blue, while Governor Romney’s are red. And yes, my comments will probably contain politically conservative bits of satire here and there. That makes all of this fun!

Without having to go through the bore of listing every Obama or Romney state and their electoral vote count, I will simply give the electoral vote map and tally that I have so far (thanks to the PBS Electoral Calculator):

Barack Obama: 179

Mitt Romney: 170

Tossup: 189

I am being very conservative in my judgement of what the “tossup” states are. Almost half of the grey tossup states have only a remote chance of switching parties. But, they do have a chance. You will notice that I have states that are considered fairly safe for Republicans and Democrats in the tossup category. There’ s not need to worry though! We’ll get those states out-of-the-way first, then move on to the states where the polls seem to be very close.

The Easy Tossup States

The only way these states will change hands is if the 2012 election turns out to be like two comparable elections (in my opinion): either 1980 (Reagan defeated incumbent Carter during a bad economic time, though not predicted to earlier in that campaign), or 1996 (Clinton defeated Dole handily, though the Republicans had a landslide election in the previous mid-term). I do not see either of those happening.


I think that Oregon is the Vermont of the West Coast. It is a liberal bastion at heart, though the southern and eastern portions of the state tend to be conservative leaning. It is very hard for me to imagine Oregon going for Mitt Romney unless the Republican turnout is astronomical, and the state’s high hippy population decides to vote for Green Party candidate Jill Stein instead of the President. Obama gets the state’s 7 electoral votes.


One sentence can describe why Minnesota will end up with their electoral votes going to Barack Obama. They were the one state in fifty that voted for Walter Mondale over Ronald Reagan in 1984. If they were guilty in that act, it will probably take a century for them to heal. Minnesota’s 10 electoral votes will be in Barack Obama’s column.

New Mexico

This state is one I cannot quite wrap my head around. It seems that because of its geography, libertarian edge (they elected Gary Johnson for governor twice in the 90’s) and “out west” heritage, it would be more like Arizona or Texas in its voting trends. However, New Mexico has become a safer and safer Democrat state, likely because of the large Latino voting bloc. The state would only go Republican if this election is a Romney landslide. New Mexico is a safe Obama state with 5 electoral votes.


In 2008, I was finishing my senior year of college in northwest Indiana, and can definitely remember the shock when the final vote count came in, and the state’s electoral votes were given to Barack Obama. I was also in the part of the state that handed the votes to Obama. I can remember a few interesting things about the campaign flyers I saw, and the ACORN canvassers I ran into a few times in Gary, Indiana. Let’s just say that Indiana isn’t going to make the same mistake twice by voting in Barack Obama. They’ve been snapped out of their hypnosis, and giving their 11 votes to Mitt Romney this year.


Missouri is becoming less and less of a “tossup” state as the elections pass. The state’s conservative Catholic and Evangelical votes are moving farther and farther away from the Democratic reach. The booming parts of the state (such as Springfield and St. Charles) are heavily conservative areas. It would take a miracle for Barack Obama to win Missouri: a state he did not even carry in the 2008 election (though the margin was very small). Missouri’s 10 votes are going to Romney.


Oh, my poor home state! How I wish you would come to the light! Michigan is not a very friendly state to Republicans at a national level. Though they did swing to the right during the 2010 mid-term elections, President Obama’s constant barrage of attacks against Mitt Romney for not supporting the bailout of GM and Chrysler will hurt the challenger. The thing Mr. Romney does have going for him is being a native of the state. This, a possibly high turnout in the western side of the state (again, the prosperous, conservative part), and a low turnout in the eastern side (the economically depressed, liberal part) gives Mitt Romney the chance of carrying Michigan. As much as I don’t like to say it, though, its 16 electoral college votes will be with President Obama this cycle.

Early Sunday Morning Addendum: A poll just released this morning gives me more hope that Michigan will swing Governor Romney’s way, but I’ll still stick with my prediction. This does not mean a good Republican turnout can’t prove me wrong. I would love to be proven wrong on this one. Make my day, Michigan!


A good amount of analysts that I have seen put Nevada as a true tossup, instead of an easy one as I put it. I remember what happened in 2010 when Harry Reid seemed like he was doomed. I honestly do not believe it was because Sharon Angle was “too conservative.” Nevada went for Harry because he knows how to get the casino barons and their employees to turn out and vote for the big “D.” I see the same scenario happening again here. But there is some hope for Governor Romney. Early voting numbers are looking good for Republicans, and the state’s high Mormon population could turn out and vote one of their own in as President for the first time in history. I’m still giving Nevada and its 6 electoral votes to the Democratic side, though. Those casino union bosses can sure turn out the vote!

North Carolina

This is my counter to putting Nevada as an easy Obama win. I think that North Carolina voters, like Indiana’s, regret helping to put Barack Obama into office. The young, yuppie type voters in “the Triangle” and the minority population are not going to turn out in droves like they did in 2008. The polls show a closer race than I arbitrarily think is reality. Romney will put a very large Evangelical vote on the table this election: something that happened in a very diminished way four years ago. Mitt Romney is going to end up with North Carolina’s 15 electoral votes.


With these “easy tossup states” in their respective columns, I have the following map and tally:

Barack Obama: 223

Mitt Romney: 206

Please stay tuned tomorrow as I delve into the “real tossup states.” I have eight states in this category: Colorado, Iowa, Wisconsin, Ohio, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, Virginia, and Florida. They have a total of 109 electoral votes added together. They are the states that have seen most of the campaigning. They are the states who will decide whether Barack Obama or Mitt Romney will be the President for the next four years.