Tag: conservative

Election Day – Finally

I’ve already made my predictions (Part I, Part II, Part III). I am now ready to vote–finally! Actually, I have been for a few years. It’s pretty simple for me: straight Republican for this election; however, I won’t be pushing the “Straight Republican” button on the machine. Why? There’s just more satisfaction for me for selecting each candidate. Here’s my list:

  • President: Mitt Romney (Paul Ryan VP)
  • US Senator: Tom Smith
  • US Congress (4th District): Scott Perry
  • Attorney General: David Freed
  • State Treasurer: Diana Irey Vaughan
  • PA General Assembly Representative: Stan Saylor
  • Auditor General: John Maher

To be completely honest, I’m not even sure yet if I’ll vote in the morning before work, or in the evening after I get off of work. I’m leaning for the morning. And of course, I’ll be up late watching the results come in. I remember doing this for the first time in 2000 (I was 13 then…yes, I’m a nerd for this stuff!), staying up until 2AM, going to bed, then waking up to hear that the election was still a tossup. Hopefully, it won’t be this time around.

As an aggregate from what I’ve heard, I’ll give you a taste of things to watch out for, to see which way things are trending.

  1. 6:00PM EST | Indiana is one of the first “battleground-ish” states to close its polls (though it should have no problem going for Romney). Indiana has to be called early for Romney. If it takes a few hours, Republicans will be in trouble.
  2. 7:00PM EST | Florida and Virginia are the big states to close at this time. If both are called for Romney before 9:00PM, this will be a good night for Romney.
  3. 8:00PM EST | This is the big one. Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Michigan all close at 9. Of course, there could be some polls open later because of long lines, but overall, between 8PM and 10PM, I think the election will be decided. If any of these states get called for any candidate before 9PM, the night will look very bright for that candidate. If Romney wins ONE of these, the contest is OVER. If Obama holds all of them (especially Ohio), it will be tough for Romney to win–nearly requiring a miracle.
  4. 9:00PM EST | Colorado comes up at this hour. If Ohio ends up swinging in Romney’s favor, and he ends up losing several of the other tossups (like Virginia, New Hampshire, or Iowa), Colorado will push him over the top, theoretically. If Obama picks up Colorado, along with Virgina and Iowa after Romney wins Ohio, then Mr. Obama could still eek out a victory. Wisconsin is of course here as well. Romney would have to have it if he loses Ohio. Otherwise, the state doesn’t mean quite as much to either candidate.

And a few tips from me to my fellow conservative voters:

  • Don’t let the exit polls that might be leaked in the afternoon do ANYTHING to you. Don’t say, “Oh, it looks like Obama’s going to win. I’ll just vote next time.” That’s what the Democrats want you to do. That’s what they tried to do in the 2004 elections when Bush won, as well as the recent Wisconsin recall election. If we would have went by the leaked exit polls in Wisconsin, then Walker would have lost handily. Note: he won by 5 points.
  • Make sure your vote is counted. If somehow you are not on your precinct’s registration list (because you moved recently, ended up at the wrong polling place, etc.) make sure you get to the right polling place.
  • Don’t let long lines hinder you. If the polling place is about to close, make sure that you stay in line.

And on a much more important note:

If Mitt Romney is elected President, the Senate flips to Republican control, and the House stays solidly red, then guess what? In the long run as Christians, this means pretty much nothing. Yes, I am a conservative. I believe in free-market, capitalist economics. I am pro-life, pro-gun, pro-freedom of religion, and pro-limited-government. But my political beliefs are gong to change our country to what it needs to be at heart. I am reminded of this so much when reading biographies of historic preachers (Edwards, Moody, Spurgeon,  Torrey, Finney, among others)? They never were involved in preaching a “vote this guy in, and revival will come” gospel. What did they pray for? A Spiritual Awakening: one preaches the Living Christ; that floods the aisles with converts; that mends families; that rescues the needy; that strives for Godly Holiness. This is what we need as a nation. Sure, a political victory is great to have. But what does it matter in eternity? Vote on Election Day. Vote for God’s moral values. Vote for freedom. But never forget Whom we serve for eternity!

I would recommend reading Joel Rosenberg’s Implosion for more on this subject.

2012 Presidential Election Predictions – Part II – Easy States

Since I have spelled out the methodology and basis for my predictions in Part I of the 2012 Election Predictions, I now want to go through, state my state, what I am thinking the final elections results will look like. To start off, I have made a map of the states that I believe have absolutely no chance of changing hands this election. These are safe for either candidate. Going with the typical colors used, President Obama likely states are blue, while Governor Romney’s are red. And yes, my comments will probably contain politically conservative bits of satire here and there. That makes all of this fun!

Without having to go through the bore of listing every Obama or Romney state and their electoral vote count, I will simply give the electoral vote map and tally that I have so far (thanks to the PBS Electoral Calculator):

Barack Obama: 179

Mitt Romney: 170

Tossup: 189

I am being very conservative in my judgement of what the “tossup” states are. Almost half of the grey tossup states have only a remote chance of switching parties. But, they do have a chance. You will notice that I have states that are considered fairly safe for Republicans and Democrats in the tossup category. There’ s not need to worry though! We’ll get those states out-of-the-way first, then move on to the states where the polls seem to be very close.

The Easy Tossup States

The only way these states will change hands is if the 2012 election turns out to be like two comparable elections (in my opinion): either 1980 (Reagan defeated incumbent Carter during a bad economic time, though not predicted to earlier in that campaign), or 1996 (Clinton defeated Dole handily, though the Republicans had a landslide election in the previous mid-term). I do not see either of those happening.

Oregon

I think that Oregon is the Vermont of the West Coast. It is a liberal bastion at heart, though the southern and eastern portions of the state tend to be conservative leaning. It is very hard for me to imagine Oregon going for Mitt Romney unless the Republican turnout is astronomical, and the state’s high hippy population decides to vote for Green Party candidate Jill Stein instead of the President. Obama gets the state’s 7 electoral votes.

Minnesota

One sentence can describe why Minnesota will end up with their electoral votes going to Barack Obama. They were the one state in fifty that voted for Walter Mondale over Ronald Reagan in 1984. If they were guilty in that act, it will probably take a century for them to heal. Minnesota’s 10 electoral votes will be in Barack Obama’s column.

New Mexico

This state is one I cannot quite wrap my head around. It seems that because of its geography, libertarian edge (they elected Gary Johnson for governor twice in the 90’s) and “out west” heritage, it would be more like Arizona or Texas in its voting trends. However, New Mexico has become a safer and safer Democrat state, likely because of the large Latino voting bloc. The state would only go Republican if this election is a Romney landslide. New Mexico is a safe Obama state with 5 electoral votes.

Indiana

In 2008, I was finishing my senior year of college in northwest Indiana, and can definitely remember the shock when the final vote count came in, and the state’s electoral votes were given to Barack Obama. I was also in the part of the state that handed the votes to Obama. I can remember a few interesting things about the campaign flyers I saw, and the ACORN canvassers I ran into a few times in Gary, Indiana. Let’s just say that Indiana isn’t going to make the same mistake twice by voting in Barack Obama. They’ve been snapped out of their hypnosis, and giving their 11 votes to Mitt Romney this year.

Missouri

Missouri is becoming less and less of a “tossup” state as the elections pass. The state’s conservative Catholic and Evangelical votes are moving farther and farther away from the Democratic reach. The booming parts of the state (such as Springfield and St. Charles) are heavily conservative areas. It would take a miracle for Barack Obama to win Missouri: a state he did not even carry in the 2008 election (though the margin was very small). Missouri’s 10 votes are going to Romney.

Michigan

Oh, my poor home state! How I wish you would come to the light! Michigan is not a very friendly state to Republicans at a national level. Though they did swing to the right during the 2010 mid-term elections, President Obama’s constant barrage of attacks against Mitt Romney for not supporting the bailout of GM and Chrysler will hurt the challenger. The thing Mr. Romney does have going for him is being a native of the state. This, a possibly high turnout in the western side of the state (again, the prosperous, conservative part), and a low turnout in the eastern side (the economically depressed, liberal part) gives Mitt Romney the chance of carrying Michigan. As much as I don’t like to say it, though, its 16 electoral college votes will be with President Obama this cycle.

Early Sunday Morning Addendum: A poll just released this morning gives me more hope that Michigan will swing Governor Romney’s way, but I’ll still stick with my prediction. This does not mean a good Republican turnout can’t prove me wrong. I would love to be proven wrong on this one. Make my day, Michigan!

Nevada

A good amount of analysts that I have seen put Nevada as a true tossup, instead of an easy one as I put it. I remember what happened in 2010 when Harry Reid seemed like he was doomed. I honestly do not believe it was because Sharon Angle was “too conservative.” Nevada went for Harry because he knows how to get the casino barons and their employees to turn out and vote for the big “D.” I see the same scenario happening again here. But there is some hope for Governor Romney. Early voting numbers are looking good for Republicans, and the state’s high Mormon population could turn out and vote one of their own in as President for the first time in history. I’m still giving Nevada and its 6 electoral votes to the Democratic side, though. Those casino union bosses can sure turn out the vote!

North Carolina

This is my counter to putting Nevada as an easy Obama win. I think that North Carolina voters, like Indiana’s, regret helping to put Barack Obama into office. The young, yuppie type voters in “the Triangle” and the minority population are not going to turn out in droves like they did in 2008. The polls show a closer race than I arbitrarily think is reality. Romney will put a very large Evangelical vote on the table this election: something that happened in a very diminished way four years ago. Mitt Romney is going to end up with North Carolina’s 15 electoral votes.

Tomorrow…

With these “easy tossup states” in their respective columns, I have the following map and tally:

Barack Obama: 223

Mitt Romney: 206

Please stay tuned tomorrow as I delve into the “real tossup states.” I have eight states in this category: Colorado, Iowa, Wisconsin, Ohio, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, Virginia, and Florida. They have a total of 109 electoral votes added together. They are the states that have seen most of the campaigning. They are the states who will decide whether Barack Obama or Mitt Romney will be the President for the next four years.

Status of America in 2012

To be honest, during college, I wasn’t all that politically involved.  Sure, I voted, and even volunteered for the 2006 elections (poll greeter), and 2008 elections (poll watcher) — both for the GOP, of course.  However, my attention to the news and general state of politics was very minimal.  Basically, I volunteered because I identified myself as both a social and fiscal conservative, so that’s what I thought should do.  If you were to ask me what I was, of course I would say I was a conservative Republican.  I guess you could say I wore the conservative jacket, but it was kind of just an identifier, rather that who I really am.

I remember watching the results come in – Andrea and I knew it was bad when Indiana (the relatively Republican state I resided it at the time) went for Obama.  Earlier, during the Democratic primaries, I recall wishing with everything that Hillary Clinton would not be president when I was married, and especially not when my children were born!  Little did I know that we would end up with this current guy!

I just barely remember hearing about the big, fat stimulus package that was passed in early ’09 – maybe from the Drudge Report or something.  Andrea and I were married soon after I graduated that spring, then we moved to Pennsylvania.  The point I became engaged with politics again was July of ’09.  I remember reading some polls and editorials on Real Clear Politics about the newly evolving “health care” bill being stewed up by the Dems.  Researching more, I became just plain OUTRAGED at the whole idea.  Then I would vent on my poor wife, who became even more of an anti-Obamacare activist than I.  Ahhh!!!

Remember this?

I paid very close attention to the whole ordeal up until the summer recess, when small minority of Republicans courageously stood up to the giant monster of Obama-Reed-Pelosi.  Did I say courageous?  Well, they were.  No question about that.  What happened after that?  Do you remember?  I sure do!  Citizen revolt!  Town hall after town hall, conservatives came out of the woodwork.  I know the Tea Party existed before that, but I remember it really taking off that August.  I had become a Gadsden flag waving Tea Party Conservative!

I never felt so proud as to vote for Todd Platts (my US Congressman), and Pat Toomey (my US Senator) in November 2010, and helping the GOP win the most decisive victory since World War II.  And I am even more excited about being engaged in this election every step, and making sure I cast my ballot for the values which I hold dear.  Mitt Romney is definitely my man for 2012!

With all of that said, and I don’t want to cast a shadow on all of this, I believe the state of our nation is leaning heavily against our conservative values.  And as a whole (though we can definitely slow it), the electorate is moving against us.  Again, I don’t want to sound all doom and gloom — I do think that things can change, and America restored; but, there is a large amount going against us.  In which ways, you may ask?

First, we have to start with our moral fabric.  I may have to save all that I have to say about this for another time, but here is the gist: spiritually, this nation is destitute.  The true believers have become either marginalized or religiously worthless.  The main-line denominations have all pretty much become empty, if not virtually anti-God, and the non-religious are becoming more and more militant against Christianity.

Second, our education system, from preschool to grad school, are vastly, undeniably, and unashamedly liberal (speaking specifically of public education and most higher learning institutions).  Yes, for kids raised in conservative homes, and for some brave young people who can think for themselves, they can resist the influence.  But, if you see the average graduate of either high school or college, they are all for Obama/social justice/appeasement/etc.  What to you expect with a generation of post Madeline Murray-O’Hair classrooms with plenty of former (or current) hippies acting as “educators”, and teaching the student body that the French and Russian Revolutions were the greatest events ever, and that the US is a colonial oppressor?  We’re reaping our wild oats that we sowed in the ’60’s.

Thirdly…um…The media!  For sake of a more thorough review of this topic, please visit Big Journalism.  You won’t be surprised.

Fourthly, there’s all of the demographic changes.  Just look at how the map of our country has changed in the last 20 years or less. You may ask, how does this effect America’s status politically?  Let me give you the state of North Carolina, or just as easily, Virginia and Georgia.  Since the 1980’s these states have been primarily dominated by conservative politicians at the state level.  In the last couple of decades, the economy and quality of living for these states has skyrocketed.  This, of course, creates both blue-collar and white-collar jobs.  Where do white-collar jobs typically come from?  Educated graduates of public or private universities.  Are these places of higher education conservative?  Are they promoters of fiscal responsibility?  I think not.  So, you have a state like North Carolina, with a blossoming private sector, that attracts jobs and people to the state, regardless of political party.  They’ll move to NC for good jobs — this being because the free market prevails — instead of going back to New York or Boston to stand at Occupy rallies, where government snuffs out every possible entrepreneurial motive with big regulations.  Do they change their minds, and all the sudden vote GOP?  Maybe a few, but for the most part, they carry their ideology with them.  This makes states like NC, VA, and GA more and more “purple” politically.  And guess what will happen in the coming years?  They’ll get NYC style regulations, and their economy will become just like where they came from.  It’s funny how this works, huh?

So, where do we, as conservatives, go from here?  Do we give in, and just let this progressive “social Darwinism” take its course?  I think not!  This is the time where we have to be much more engaged.  Don’t just let your kids’ teachers tell them that Obama is the Messiah.  Don’t let your children give in to pressure with the labels disingenuously and wrongly given to them by their guidance counselors (bigot, religious nut, right-winger, etc.).  The more we stand, the stronger we become.  I truly believe that if the average American take time to think about which political persuasion is right, they will choose traditional, American conservatism.  By the way, make sure you vote, and get others to do so as well.

Judgement Cometh

...and that right soon.

If you haven’t already, get out and vote!  Make it a priority!  Vote for freedom and prosperity!  Vote for conservative, Constitutional candidates!

…I had to get that little rant out.  I am especially glad I have done my part to kick out Nancy Pelosi and Harry Reid.  My vote for Pat Toomey for US Senator I give gladly!  On top of that I have given my vote to Tom Corbett for governor, and Todd Platts for Congressman.  Both Pat Toomey and Tom Corbett winning would be “pick-ups” for conservative Republicans.  With that said, here are a few humble predictions of mine for today.  We will see how right (or wrong!) I was by tomorrow.

  • Pat Toomey(R) will defeat Joe Sestak(D) by 5 points here in PA.
  • Next door, in Delaware, Chris Coons(D) will only defeat firebrand Christine O’Donnell(R) by 6 points
  • Far out west in Nevada, Harry Reid will be defeated by Sharon Angle, but probably by less that we would hope–around 3 points.
  • Colorado, I think, will not be all that close.  Ken Buck(R) will win over Michael Bennet(D) by 6 points.
  • In California, this may be closer than expected, but I still thing ol’ Barbara Boxer(D) will hang on by 2 points against former Hewlett-Packard CEO Carly Fiorina(R).  If she is losing by tomorrow in a narrow race, expect plenty of lawsuits.
  • Washington is a liberal state.  However Dino Rossi(R), will very narrowly win this after the week is over against Patty Murray(D).  There may be plenty of recounts here…
  • Also a place worth watching closely is Illinois.  I think that Mark Kirk(R) will get more real votes than Alexi Giannoulias(D).  However, this is the state where “Crook” County is found.  Complicating the situation, Chicago swindling and politics may just pull this one off for the Democrats.  I sure hope its a wide enough margin here for Mr. Kirk(R), so Chicago and Mayor Daley won’t be able to make votes come out of thin air, and rig this election.
  • The there’s West Virginia.  Unfortunately though, the Democrats have found their winning strategy here in Joe Manchin(D).  Mr. Manchin has come out as a conservative, “Palin-ite”, Democrat.  Even just yesterday, he said that he and Palin were “friends.” John Raese(R) has a tough one to pull off here.  I think that Manchin(D) will win by five points here, possibly more.

As a summary to all of that, I expect the senate to be broken up as 51 Democrats and 49 Republicans.  Perhaps this isn’t all that optimistic, but I think I am being pretty conservative in my estimates.  In the House of Representatives, though, GOP gains will be HUGE.  I honestly think that 65 seats is probable, possibly more.

Now, the Democrats are going to make this their victory somehow.  They will probably make anything less than a full Senate takeover as a GOP loss, and anything less than 60 seats as a victory for them too.  Just know, if anyone makes either one of those two points, just say that a turnover in this proportion has not happened since the Great Depression.

Oh, and don’t forget to vote!