Category: The Study

2012 Presidential Election Predictions – Part II – Easy States

Since I have spelled out the methodology and basis for my predictions in Part I of the 2012 Election Predictions, I now want to go through, state my state, what I am thinking the final elections results will look like. To start off, I have made a map of the states that I believe have absolutely no chance of changing hands this election. These are safe for either candidate. Going with the typical colors used, President Obama likely states are blue, while Governor Romney’s are red. And yes, my comments will probably contain politically conservative bits of satire here and there. That makes all of this fun!

Without having to go through the bore of listing every Obama or Romney state and their electoral vote count, I will simply give the electoral vote map and tally that I have so far (thanks to the PBS Electoral Calculator):

Barack Obama: 179

Mitt Romney: 170

Tossup: 189

I am being very conservative in my judgement of what the “tossup” states are. Almost half of the grey tossup states have only a remote chance of switching parties. But, they do have a chance. You will notice that I have states that are considered fairly safe for Republicans and Democrats in the tossup category. There’ s not need to worry though! We’ll get those states out-of-the-way first, then move on to the states where the polls seem to be very close.

The Easy Tossup States

The only way these states will change hands is if the 2012 election turns out to be like two comparable elections (in my opinion): either 1980 (Reagan defeated incumbent Carter during a bad economic time, though not predicted to earlier in that campaign), or 1996 (Clinton defeated Dole handily, though the Republicans had a landslide election in the previous mid-term). I do not see either of those happening.

Oregon

I think that Oregon is the Vermont of the West Coast. It is a liberal bastion at heart, though the southern and eastern portions of the state tend to be conservative leaning. It is very hard for me to imagine Oregon going for Mitt Romney unless the Republican turnout is astronomical, and the state’s high hippy population decides to vote for Green Party candidate Jill Stein instead of the President. Obama gets the state’s 7 electoral votes.

Minnesota

One sentence can describe why Minnesota will end up with their electoral votes going to Barack Obama. They were the one state in fifty that voted for Walter Mondale over Ronald Reagan in 1984. If they were guilty in that act, it will probably take a century for them to heal. Minnesota’s 10 electoral votes will be in Barack Obama’s column.

New Mexico

This state is one I cannot quite wrap my head around. It seems that because of its geography, libertarian edge (they elected Gary Johnson for governor twice in the 90’s) and “out west” heritage, it would be more like Arizona or Texas in its voting trends. However, New Mexico has become a safer and safer Democrat state, likely because of the large Latino voting bloc. The state would only go Republican if this election is a Romney landslide. New Mexico is a safe Obama state with 5 electoral votes.

Indiana

In 2008, I was finishing my senior year of college in northwest Indiana, and can definitely remember the shock when the final vote count came in, and the state’s electoral votes were given to Barack Obama. I was also in the part of the state that handed the votes to Obama. I can remember a few interesting things about the campaign flyers I saw, and the ACORN canvassers I ran into a few times in Gary, Indiana. Let’s just say that Indiana isn’t going to make the same mistake twice by voting in Barack Obama. They’ve been snapped out of their hypnosis, and giving their 11 votes to Mitt Romney this year.

Missouri

Missouri is becoming less and less of a “tossup” state as the elections pass. The state’s conservative Catholic and Evangelical votes are moving farther and farther away from the Democratic reach. The booming parts of the state (such as Springfield and St. Charles) are heavily conservative areas. It would take a miracle for Barack Obama to win Missouri: a state he did not even carry in the 2008 election (though the margin was very small). Missouri’s 10 votes are going to Romney.

Michigan

Oh, my poor home state! How I wish you would come to the light! Michigan is not a very friendly state to Republicans at a national level. Though they did swing to the right during the 2010 mid-term elections, President Obama’s constant barrage of attacks against Mitt Romney for not supporting the bailout of GM and Chrysler will hurt the challenger. The thing Mr. Romney does have going for him is being a native of the state. This, a possibly high turnout in the western side of the state (again, the prosperous, conservative part), and a low turnout in the eastern side (the economically depressed, liberal part) gives Mitt Romney the chance of carrying Michigan. As much as I don’t like to say it, though, its 16 electoral college votes will be with President Obama this cycle.

Early Sunday Morning Addendum: A poll just released this morning gives me more hope that Michigan will swing Governor Romney’s way, but I’ll still stick with my prediction. This does not mean a good Republican turnout can’t prove me wrong. I would love to be proven wrong on this one. Make my day, Michigan!

Nevada

A good amount of analysts that I have seen put Nevada as a true tossup, instead of an easy one as I put it. I remember what happened in 2010 when Harry Reid seemed like he was doomed. I honestly do not believe it was because Sharon Angle was “too conservative.” Nevada went for Harry because he knows how to get the casino barons and their employees to turn out and vote for the big “D.” I see the same scenario happening again here. But there is some hope for Governor Romney. Early voting numbers are looking good for Republicans, and the state’s high Mormon population could turn out and vote one of their own in as President for the first time in history. I’m still giving Nevada and its 6 electoral votes to the Democratic side, though. Those casino union bosses can sure turn out the vote!

North Carolina

This is my counter to putting Nevada as an easy Obama win. I think that North Carolina voters, like Indiana’s, regret helping to put Barack Obama into office. The young, yuppie type voters in “the Triangle” and the minority population are not going to turn out in droves like they did in 2008. The polls show a closer race than I arbitrarily think is reality. Romney will put a very large Evangelical vote on the table this election: something that happened in a very diminished way four years ago. Mitt Romney is going to end up with North Carolina’s 15 electoral votes.

Tomorrow…

With these “easy tossup states” in their respective columns, I have the following map and tally:

Barack Obama: 223

Mitt Romney: 206

Please stay tuned tomorrow as I delve into the “real tossup states.” I have eight states in this category: Colorado, Iowa, Wisconsin, Ohio, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, Virginia, and Florida. They have a total of 109 electoral votes added together. They are the states that have seen most of the campaigning. They are the states who will decide whether Barack Obama or Mitt Romney will be the President for the next four years.

2012 Presidential Election Predictions – Part I

For about a year, at my place of employment, I was often tasked with making fact-based arguments about how a critical decision should go one way or another. This process would usually begin with a regular, automated statistical report–showing troubling numbers–appearing in an executive’s inbox; and either the facts (on the surface) indicated that the operation was in trouble, or in danger of falling behind. Then, I would receive a phone call or email from my superior asking my opinion about what the report meant for the business, and instructing me to dive deeper into the stats to see what steps could be made to improve the operation, or what could be done to limit the pain.

A view of part of my workplace

What I found out over time is that live, high-level statistics are excellent indicators of reality, but they are not always true reality. I differentiate the live, high-level statistics from the post-live, low-level statistics that always indicate true reality. I am definitely not a statistician; but I do know that numbers are numbers in the end.

The 2012 Presidential Election: how do you relate the live statistics with the post-live statistics? Comparing this with what I have previously stated: the polls that come out on an almost daily rate are the live, high-level key performance indicators (KPI), and the  Election Day vote tallies are the post-live, low-level stats. Everyone would agree that the latter is the true indicator of reality; but also, I do not think many would argue that the KPI is not a good indicator of reality. The presidential election polls are a good indicator of reality. They are based on highly researched algorithms of probability, among other realms of statistics I dare not delve into. I can look at presidential polls (whether national or state-level), and make very educated guesses based on those polls.

If the just polls were the actual election statistics, President Obama would likely be reelected–though this could be argued. Yes, the methods and formulas could be questioned; yet overall, both campaigns and the general public base their strategy on them. This is similar to the business decision-making at my place of employment. A report is received, and decisions are constantly made based on the facts of that report. However, the report is not always the true indicator of what is actually happening. And that is where a little thing called intuition comes into play.

Intuition is using those statistical KPI’s, while also taking into account past experience and current perception; and with that, making an educated opinion of what the final outcome will be. If I would have based my opinions–and therefore decisions–on only the statistical KPI’s, the outcome would often have been undesired. That is why I would always try to look below the surface, possibly look further into the statistics; but also recollect my past experiences and formulate a perceptional opinion. The ironic thing is that perception is not at all a science. Some would argue that a wise opinion can not be based on perception; which is true to a certain extent. But I would argue that perception can be factored into an argument. There are some things that machines and numbers cannot indicate to a human. Human intuition can be dangerous, but when utilized with facts, it can be extremely powerful.

Blank USA, w territories

That is why I would like to make some Presidential election predictions: based on the KPI’s (polls), my past experiences, and current perception–similar to how I would have made a prediction a year ago regarding business operational performance.

  • Can I be wrong? For sure.
  • Will my predictions be correct? The overall probability odds are against me.
  • Am I expecting to be wrong on the final outcome? Not at all.
  • What are the odds of me being correct on every state? I would guess 1:10.
  • Am I a fortune teller? That depends. I charge $500.00 an hour: results are not guaranteed.
  • Was that last question a joke? Yes.

So, a couple of times within the next few days before the election, I will publish my highly-prone-to-error predictions on what the state-by-state results will be, along with the final outcome. Stay tuned!

What the United States Truly Needs

Which course is America currently on, according to history? In which ways could the United States literally implode? Does God still have a plan for America? These questions, and many like them, are well presented, documented, and answered by Joel C. Rosenberg in his most recent work, Implosion: Can America Recover from Its Economic and Spiritual Challenges in Time?

Cover

Being a fan of Mr. Rosenberg’s political thrillers, it was not difficult to pick up Implosion. I found this non-fiction book very relevant, in my opinion, to the situations our nation faces in the present. The exciting and gripping style that the author uses in his fiction writings shows itself at times in Implosion as well. Facts are presented in an easy-to-understand manner, definitely not feeling too cumbersome. Several chapters of theories as to what could cause the United States to “implode” are revealed in a way that causes the reader to think, but without trying to create or expound upon conspiracy theories. Rosenberg is very mainstream in his hypotheses, yet still remains thought-provoking.

I bought this book on Amazon for my Kindle (like pretty much every book I’ve bought in the last two years), and found the quality of Tyndale’s Kindle publishing to be of high-quality, yet again. There were no obvious typos or formatting errors that I saw.

In the first chapters of Implosion, the author answers, in detail, many questions that the average American citizen (or politician for that matter) may have concerning the Bible, and specifically: end times prophecy. Several questions are answered about whether America is mentioned in Biblical prophecy, and what role she could play in the future events of this world. Again, Mr. Rosenberg is very realistic in his assumptions. In no way does he delve into implausible, manufactured theories that rely simply on being culturally outrageous. He is clear and objective in prophetic matters.

About one-third of the way into the book, Joel C. Rosenberg begins to play out multiple scenarios that could cause the United States to implode upon herself. From economic collapse and terrorism, to natural disasters and the rapture, facts are presented for each case, and how this nation could become nearly insignificant in world events in the near future. Then, as if to show the reader the truth behind all of the facts, the author declares the true implosion of America that has already begun: spiritual apathy.

After showing the reality of America’s overall spiritual condition by different modern and historical figures, the author takes the reader back 250 years ago, to the First Great Awakening. During that time, men such as George Whitefield, Jonathan Edwards, and the Wesley brothers were used by God to literally transform colonial America from hard-necked “religious” pragmatists  into an overall Spirit-sensitive group of people. What seemed like insurmountable spiritual deadness was completely trodden down to make place for a historic Christian revival: with souls saved, lives turned around, and families mended.

Even 70 years after the First Great Awakening, though, a coldness had once again developed towards Godly things. The Enlightenment had put a damper on churches, to the point where most Protestant ministers even seemed unregenerate. Then, through prayer, fasting, and God’s Divine Providence, a revival spread from the ports of the east coast to the furthest frontiers. Whole families and towns were born-again. Church attendance and the number of churches in general rose tremendously. It was because God is more powerful than any human tendency toward spiritual decay; and because just a few of God’s people, again, prayed, fasted, and sought the Lord concerning the state of their neighbors.

What Joel Rosenberg brought to light at the end of the book was the need–not for a political revival–but a true, Spirit-driven Great Awakening. I have to admit, I have been paying very close attention to this current election cycle. It is very easy to get caught up into the politics of everything, and attach your hope of the future of the United States to a candidate. In no way am I saying that we should be disengaged (quite the opposite, in fact, as Rosenberg explains); however, as Christians, we must examine ourselves and not throw our hope into any political change. An American change back to the roots of her founding can only happen if America’s people seek the God of their founding.

Mr. Rosenberg concludes Implosion with a challenge for Christians to look inward. Are we seeing revival in our own lives? Are we praying for national revival? Are our families gathering around the Bible together daily to worship the Lord? Or are we simply too concerned about earthly things to make time to pray and seek God through His Word? Implosion was a refreshing, encouraging, and challenging book that I think any concerned American should read. I picked this book up thinking it would be political, but found that it was not just the typical current-events rant. Implosion doesn’t simply list out all of the problems with America: it gives the honest and Biblical solution.

Status of America in 2012

To be honest, during college, I wasn’t all that politically involved.  Sure, I voted, and even volunteered for the 2006 elections (poll greeter), and 2008 elections (poll watcher) — both for the GOP, of course.  However, my attention to the news and general state of politics was very minimal.  Basically, I volunteered because I identified myself as both a social and fiscal conservative, so that’s what I thought should do.  If you were to ask me what I was, of course I would say I was a conservative Republican.  I guess you could say I wore the conservative jacket, but it was kind of just an identifier, rather that who I really am.

I remember watching the results come in – Andrea and I knew it was bad when Indiana (the relatively Republican state I resided it at the time) went for Obama.  Earlier, during the Democratic primaries, I recall wishing with everything that Hillary Clinton would not be president when I was married, and especially not when my children were born!  Little did I know that we would end up with this current guy!

I just barely remember hearing about the big, fat stimulus package that was passed in early ’09 – maybe from the Drudge Report or something.  Andrea and I were married soon after I graduated that spring, then we moved to Pennsylvania.  The point I became engaged with politics again was July of ’09.  I remember reading some polls and editorials on Real Clear Politics about the newly evolving “health care” bill being stewed up by the Dems.  Researching more, I became just plain OUTRAGED at the whole idea.  Then I would vent on my poor wife, who became even more of an anti-Obamacare activist than I.  Ahhh!!!

Remember this?

I paid very close attention to the whole ordeal up until the summer recess, when small minority of Republicans courageously stood up to the giant monster of Obama-Reed-Pelosi.  Did I say courageous?  Well, they were.  No question about that.  What happened after that?  Do you remember?  I sure do!  Citizen revolt!  Town hall after town hall, conservatives came out of the woodwork.  I know the Tea Party existed before that, but I remember it really taking off that August.  I had become a Gadsden flag waving Tea Party Conservative!

I never felt so proud as to vote for Todd Platts (my US Congressman), and Pat Toomey (my US Senator) in November 2010, and helping the GOP win the most decisive victory since World War II.  And I am even more excited about being engaged in this election every step, and making sure I cast my ballot for the values which I hold dear.  Mitt Romney is definitely my man for 2012!

With all of that said, and I don’t want to cast a shadow on all of this, I believe the state of our nation is leaning heavily against our conservative values.  And as a whole (though we can definitely slow it), the electorate is moving against us.  Again, I don’t want to sound all doom and gloom — I do think that things can change, and America restored; but, there is a large amount going against us.  In which ways, you may ask?

First, we have to start with our moral fabric.  I may have to save all that I have to say about this for another time, but here is the gist: spiritually, this nation is destitute.  The true believers have become either marginalized or religiously worthless.  The main-line denominations have all pretty much become empty, if not virtually anti-God, and the non-religious are becoming more and more militant against Christianity.

Second, our education system, from preschool to grad school, are vastly, undeniably, and unashamedly liberal (speaking specifically of public education and most higher learning institutions).  Yes, for kids raised in conservative homes, and for some brave young people who can think for themselves, they can resist the influence.  But, if you see the average graduate of either high school or college, they are all for Obama/social justice/appeasement/etc.  What to you expect with a generation of post Madeline Murray-O’Hair classrooms with plenty of former (or current) hippies acting as “educators”, and teaching the student body that the French and Russian Revolutions were the greatest events ever, and that the US is a colonial oppressor?  We’re reaping our wild oats that we sowed in the ’60’s.

Thirdly…um…The media!  For sake of a more thorough review of this topic, please visit Big Journalism.  You won’t be surprised.

Fourthly, there’s all of the demographic changes.  Just look at how the map of our country has changed in the last 20 years or less. You may ask, how does this effect America’s status politically?  Let me give you the state of North Carolina, or just as easily, Virginia and Georgia.  Since the 1980’s these states have been primarily dominated by conservative politicians at the state level.  In the last couple of decades, the economy and quality of living for these states has skyrocketed.  This, of course, creates both blue-collar and white-collar jobs.  Where do white-collar jobs typically come from?  Educated graduates of public or private universities.  Are these places of higher education conservative?  Are they promoters of fiscal responsibility?  I think not.  So, you have a state like North Carolina, with a blossoming private sector, that attracts jobs and people to the state, regardless of political party.  They’ll move to NC for good jobs — this being because the free market prevails — instead of going back to New York or Boston to stand at Occupy rallies, where government snuffs out every possible entrepreneurial motive with big regulations.  Do they change their minds, and all the sudden vote GOP?  Maybe a few, but for the most part, they carry their ideology with them.  This makes states like NC, VA, and GA more and more “purple” politically.  And guess what will happen in the coming years?  They’ll get NYC style regulations, and their economy will become just like where they came from.  It’s funny how this works, huh?

So, where do we, as conservatives, go from here?  Do we give in, and just let this progressive “social Darwinism” take its course?  I think not!  This is the time where we have to be much more engaged.  Don’t just let your kids’ teachers tell them that Obama is the Messiah.  Don’t let your children give in to pressure with the labels disingenuously and wrongly given to them by their guidance counselors (bigot, religious nut, right-winger, etc.).  The more we stand, the stronger we become.  I truly believe that if the average American take time to think about which political persuasion is right, they will choose traditional, American conservatism.  By the way, make sure you vote, and get others to do so as well.