Tag: politics

2012 Presidential Election Predictions – Part I

For about a year, at my place of employment, I was often tasked with making fact-based arguments about how a critical decision should go one way or another. This process would usually begin with a regular, automated statistical report–showing troubling numbers–appearing in an executive’s inbox; and either the facts (on the surface) indicated that the operation was in trouble, or in danger of falling behind. Then, I would receive a phone call or email from my superior asking my opinion about what the report meant for the business, and instructing me to dive deeper into the stats to see what steps could be made to improve the operation, or what could be done to limit the pain.

A view of part of my workplace

What I found out over time is that live, high-level statistics are excellent indicators of reality, but they are not always true reality. I differentiate the live, high-level statistics from the post-live, low-level statistics that always indicate true reality. I am definitely not a statistician; but I do know that numbers are numbers in the end.

The 2012 Presidential Election: how do you relate the live statistics with the post-live statistics? Comparing this with what I have previously stated: the polls that come out on an almost daily rate are the live, high-level key performance indicators (KPI), and the  Election Day vote tallies are the post-live, low-level stats. Everyone would agree that the latter is the true indicator of reality; but also, I do not think many would argue that the KPI is not a good indicator of reality. The presidential election polls are a good indicator of reality. They are based on highly researched algorithms of probability, among other realms of statistics I dare not delve into. I can look at presidential polls (whether national or state-level), and make very educated guesses based on those polls.

If the just polls were the actual election statistics, President Obama would likely be reelected–though this could be argued. Yes, the methods and formulas could be questioned; yet overall, both campaigns and the general public base their strategy on them. This is similar to the business decision-making at my place of employment. A report is received, and decisions are constantly made based on the facts of that report. However, the report is not always the true indicator of what is actually happening. And that is where a little thing called intuition comes into play.

Intuition is using those statistical KPI’s, while also taking into account past experience and current perception; and with that, making an educated opinion of what the final outcome will be. If I would have based my opinions–and therefore decisions–on only the statistical KPI’s, the outcome would often have been undesired. That is why I would always try to look below the surface, possibly look further into the statistics; but also recollect my past experiences and formulate a perceptional opinion. The ironic thing is that perception is not at all a science. Some would argue that a wise opinion can not be based on perception; which is true to a certain extent. But I would argue that perception can be factored into an argument. There are some things that machines and numbers cannot indicate to a human. Human intuition can be dangerous, but when utilized with facts, it can be extremely powerful.

Blank USA, w territories

That is why I would like to make some Presidential election predictions: based on the KPI’s (polls), my past experiences, and current perception–similar to how I would have made a prediction a year ago regarding business operational performance.

  • Can I be wrong? For sure.
  • Will my predictions be correct? The overall probability odds are against me.
  • Am I expecting to be wrong on the final outcome? Not at all.
  • What are the odds of me being correct on every state? I would guess 1:10.
  • Am I a fortune teller? That depends. I charge $500.00 an hour: results are not guaranteed.
  • Was that last question a joke? Yes.

So, a couple of times within the next few days before the election, I will publish my highly-prone-to-error predictions on what the state-by-state results will be, along with the final outcome. Stay tuned!

What the United States Truly Needs

Which course is America currently on, according to history? In which ways could the United States literally implode? Does God still have a plan for America? These questions, and many like them, are well presented, documented, and answered by Joel C. Rosenberg in his most recent work, Implosion: Can America Recover from Its Economic and Spiritual Challenges in Time?

Cover

Being a fan of Mr. Rosenberg’s political thrillers, it was not difficult to pick up Implosion. I found this non-fiction book very relevant, in my opinion, to the situations our nation faces in the present. The exciting and gripping style that the author uses in his fiction writings shows itself at times in Implosion as well. Facts are presented in an easy-to-understand manner, definitely not feeling too cumbersome. Several chapters of theories as to what could cause the United States to “implode” are revealed in a way that causes the reader to think, but without trying to create or expound upon conspiracy theories. Rosenberg is very mainstream in his hypotheses, yet still remains thought-provoking.

I bought this book on Amazon for my Kindle (like pretty much every book I’ve bought in the last two years), and found the quality of Tyndale’s Kindle publishing to be of high-quality, yet again. There were no obvious typos or formatting errors that I saw.

In the first chapters of Implosion, the author answers, in detail, many questions that the average American citizen (or politician for that matter) may have concerning the Bible, and specifically: end times prophecy. Several questions are answered about whether America is mentioned in Biblical prophecy, and what role she could play in the future events of this world. Again, Mr. Rosenberg is very realistic in his assumptions. In no way does he delve into implausible, manufactured theories that rely simply on being culturally outrageous. He is clear and objective in prophetic matters.

About one-third of the way into the book, Joel C. Rosenberg begins to play out multiple scenarios that could cause the United States to implode upon herself. From economic collapse and terrorism, to natural disasters and the rapture, facts are presented for each case, and how this nation could become nearly insignificant in world events in the near future. Then, as if to show the reader the truth behind all of the facts, the author declares the true implosion of America that has already begun: spiritual apathy.

After showing the reality of America’s overall spiritual condition by different modern and historical figures, the author takes the reader back 250 years ago, to the First Great Awakening. During that time, men such as George Whitefield, Jonathan Edwards, and the Wesley brothers were used by God to literally transform colonial America from hard-necked “religious” pragmatists  into an overall Spirit-sensitive group of people. What seemed like insurmountable spiritual deadness was completely trodden down to make place for a historic Christian revival: with souls saved, lives turned around, and families mended.

Even 70 years after the First Great Awakening, though, a coldness had once again developed towards Godly things. The Enlightenment had put a damper on churches, to the point where most Protestant ministers even seemed unregenerate. Then, through prayer, fasting, and God’s Divine Providence, a revival spread from the ports of the east coast to the furthest frontiers. Whole families and towns were born-again. Church attendance and the number of churches in general rose tremendously. It was because God is more powerful than any human tendency toward spiritual decay; and because just a few of God’s people, again, prayed, fasted, and sought the Lord concerning the state of their neighbors.

What Joel Rosenberg brought to light at the end of the book was the need–not for a political revival–but a true, Spirit-driven Great Awakening. I have to admit, I have been paying very close attention to this current election cycle. It is very easy to get caught up into the politics of everything, and attach your hope of the future of the United States to a candidate. In no way am I saying that we should be disengaged (quite the opposite, in fact, as Rosenberg explains); however, as Christians, we must examine ourselves and not throw our hope into any political change. An American change back to the roots of her founding can only happen if America’s people seek the God of their founding.

Mr. Rosenberg concludes Implosion with a challenge for Christians to look inward. Are we seeing revival in our own lives? Are we praying for national revival? Are our families gathering around the Bible together daily to worship the Lord? Or are we simply too concerned about earthly things to make time to pray and seek God through His Word? Implosion was a refreshing, encouraging, and challenging book that I think any concerned American should read. I picked this book up thinking it would be political, but found that it was not just the typical current-events rant. Implosion doesn’t simply list out all of the problems with America: it gives the honest and Biblical solution.

Status of America in 2012

To be honest, during college, I wasn’t all that politically involved.  Sure, I voted, and even volunteered for the 2006 elections (poll greeter), and 2008 elections (poll watcher) — both for the GOP, of course.  However, my attention to the news and general state of politics was very minimal.  Basically, I volunteered because I identified myself as both a social and fiscal conservative, so that’s what I thought should do.  If you were to ask me what I was, of course I would say I was a conservative Republican.  I guess you could say I wore the conservative jacket, but it was kind of just an identifier, rather that who I really am.

I remember watching the results come in – Andrea and I knew it was bad when Indiana (the relatively Republican state I resided it at the time) went for Obama.  Earlier, during the Democratic primaries, I recall wishing with everything that Hillary Clinton would not be president when I was married, and especially not when my children were born!  Little did I know that we would end up with this current guy!

I just barely remember hearing about the big, fat stimulus package that was passed in early ’09 – maybe from the Drudge Report or something.  Andrea and I were married soon after I graduated that spring, then we moved to Pennsylvania.  The point I became engaged with politics again was July of ’09.  I remember reading some polls and editorials on Real Clear Politics about the newly evolving “health care” bill being stewed up by the Dems.  Researching more, I became just plain OUTRAGED at the whole idea.  Then I would vent on my poor wife, who became even more of an anti-Obamacare activist than I.  Ahhh!!!

Remember this?

I paid very close attention to the whole ordeal up until the summer recess, when small minority of Republicans courageously stood up to the giant monster of Obama-Reed-Pelosi.  Did I say courageous?  Well, they were.  No question about that.  What happened after that?  Do you remember?  I sure do!  Citizen revolt!  Town hall after town hall, conservatives came out of the woodwork.  I know the Tea Party existed before that, but I remember it really taking off that August.  I had become a Gadsden flag waving Tea Party Conservative!

I never felt so proud as to vote for Todd Platts (my US Congressman), and Pat Toomey (my US Senator) in November 2010, and helping the GOP win the most decisive victory since World War II.  And I am even more excited about being engaged in this election every step, and making sure I cast my ballot for the values which I hold dear.  Mitt Romney is definitely my man for 2012!

With all of that said, and I don’t want to cast a shadow on all of this, I believe the state of our nation is leaning heavily against our conservative values.  And as a whole (though we can definitely slow it), the electorate is moving against us.  Again, I don’t want to sound all doom and gloom — I do think that things can change, and America restored; but, there is a large amount going against us.  In which ways, you may ask?

First, we have to start with our moral fabric.  I may have to save all that I have to say about this for another time, but here is the gist: spiritually, this nation is destitute.  The true believers have become either marginalized or religiously worthless.  The main-line denominations have all pretty much become empty, if not virtually anti-God, and the non-religious are becoming more and more militant against Christianity.

Second, our education system, from preschool to grad school, are vastly, undeniably, and unashamedly liberal (speaking specifically of public education and most higher learning institutions).  Yes, for kids raised in conservative homes, and for some brave young people who can think for themselves, they can resist the influence.  But, if you see the average graduate of either high school or college, they are all for Obama/social justice/appeasement/etc.  What to you expect with a generation of post Madeline Murray-O’Hair classrooms with plenty of former (or current) hippies acting as “educators”, and teaching the student body that the French and Russian Revolutions were the greatest events ever, and that the US is a colonial oppressor?  We’re reaping our wild oats that we sowed in the ’60’s.

Thirdly…um…The media!  For sake of a more thorough review of this topic, please visit Big Journalism.  You won’t be surprised.

Fourthly, there’s all of the demographic changes.  Just look at how the map of our country has changed in the last 20 years or less. You may ask, how does this effect America’s status politically?  Let me give you the state of North Carolina, or just as easily, Virginia and Georgia.  Since the 1980’s these states have been primarily dominated by conservative politicians at the state level.  In the last couple of decades, the economy and quality of living for these states has skyrocketed.  This, of course, creates both blue-collar and white-collar jobs.  Where do white-collar jobs typically come from?  Educated graduates of public or private universities.  Are these places of higher education conservative?  Are they promoters of fiscal responsibility?  I think not.  So, you have a state like North Carolina, with a blossoming private sector, that attracts jobs and people to the state, regardless of political party.  They’ll move to NC for good jobs — this being because the free market prevails — instead of going back to New York or Boston to stand at Occupy rallies, where government snuffs out every possible entrepreneurial motive with big regulations.  Do they change their minds, and all the sudden vote GOP?  Maybe a few, but for the most part, they carry their ideology with them.  This makes states like NC, VA, and GA more and more “purple” politically.  And guess what will happen in the coming years?  They’ll get NYC style regulations, and their economy will become just like where they came from.  It’s funny how this works, huh?

So, where do we, as conservatives, go from here?  Do we give in, and just let this progressive “social Darwinism” take its course?  I think not!  This is the time where we have to be much more engaged.  Don’t just let your kids’ teachers tell them that Obama is the Messiah.  Don’t let your children give in to pressure with the labels disingenuously and wrongly given to them by their guidance counselors (bigot, religious nut, right-winger, etc.).  The more we stand, the stronger we become.  I truly believe that if the average American take time to think about which political persuasion is right, they will choose traditional, American conservatism.  By the way, make sure you vote, and get others to do so as well.